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With some German property developers filing for insolvency, construction activity has dropped over a third from a year ago. That bleak outlook was despite the government recently announcing a 45 billion euro ($47 billion) support package for the property sector and measures to encourage house building, including tax incentives. With overall economic activity expected to remain weak over the coming quarters, it could take a while for the property sector to recover. The euro zone's commercial property sector could also struggle for years, posing a threat to the banks and investors who financed it, the ECB said recently. The median view of 12 property experts forecast average home rental prices to rise 4.0% or more until 2026.

Persons: Lisi Niesner, Sebastian Schnejdar, Carsten Brzeski, Indradip Ghosh, Purujit Arun, Rahul Trivedi, Sarupya Ganguly, Ross Finley, David Evans Organizations: REUTERS, European Central Bank, ECB, ING, Thomson Locations: Berlin, Germany, BENGALURU

☆ U.S. Treasury yields have peaked, say strategists for fourth straight month
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Sarupya Ganguly | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration Acquire Licensing RightsBENGALURU, Nov 14 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields will fall in coming months, though not as sharply as forecast previously, according to bond strategists polled by Reuters, who said for a fourth month running in even greater numbers that the 10-year note yield had peaked. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield breached the 5% mark last month for the first time since July 2007, more than a full percentage point above its August low of 3.96%. Yet, when asked whether the 10-year note yield had peaked in the current cycle, an overwhelming 94% majority of respondents, 30 of 32, said it had. The interest-rate sensitive 2-year Treasury note yield , currently at 5.04%, was expected to decline about 20 basis points by end-January, before falling to 4.00% in a year, according to the survey. If realized, this would mean a complete reversal of the inverted spread between yields of U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes - historically a reliable indicator of impending recession - by end-October 2024.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Thomas Simons, Mike Sanders, Sarupya Ganguly, Prerana Bhat, Purujit Arun, Anitta Sunil, Sujith Pai, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Treasury, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Hamas, Jefferies, Madison Investments, Thomson Locations: U.S, Israel

☆ Undeterred by dollar's renewed strength, analysts see weakness ahead: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Four thousand U.S. dollars are counted out by a banker counting currency at a bank in Westminster, Colorado November 3, 2009. Adam Cole, the chief currency strategist at RBC, says he is biased toward a stronger dollar but admits the prevailing foreign exchange view in markets remains a tough nut to crack. "If you look at consensus forecasts, the consensus has been dollar negative for five years now and it hasn't worked," Cole said. One notable outlier among major central banks is the Bank of Japan, which has made the yen one of the worst-performing major currencies this year, down over 13%. (For other stories from the October Reuters foreign exchange poll:)Reporting by Hari Kishan; Polling by Prerana Bhat, Purujit Arun, Pranoy Menon and Anant Chandak; Editing by Ross Finley and Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Rick Wilking, Adam Cole, hasn't, Cole, Jane Foley, Rabobank's Foley, Hari Kishan, Prerana Bhat, Purujit Arun, Pranoy Menon, Anant Chandak, Ross Finley, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, greenback, Treasury, RBC, U.S, Futures, Bank of Japan, Rabobank, Reuters, Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, U.S

☆ Bank of England to leave rates on hold through mid-2024, cut in Q3
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( Shaloo Shrivastava | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A pedestrian walks past the Bank of England in the City of London, Britain, September 25, 2023. Last week, the Bank surprised markets by not raising rates, sending sterling to a six-month low, but signalled rates would remain higher for longer. Still, over 40% of economists, 15 of 37, who answered an extra question said the BoE should hike rates again this year. Sixteen economists predicted Bank Rate at 5.00% in the third quarter, 10 forecast 4.75%, six said 4.50%, one expected 4.25% and one 3.75%. The European Central Bank was predicted to cut rates in the third quarter next year but the Federal Reserve might start in the second quarter, separate Reuters polls showed.

Persons: Hollie Adams, The BoE, BoE, James Smith, James Rossiter, Shaloo Shrivastava, Anitta Sunil, Purujit Arun, Jonathan Cable, Bernadette Baum Organizations: Bank of England, City of, REUTERS, Rights, Bank, Monetary, The, ING Financial Markets, TD Securities, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain

☆ Bank of England to raise Bank Rate to 5.50% in September, significant minority expect further hike: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( Shaloo Shrivastava | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Nearly all 65 economists in the Sept. 11-13 Reuters poll expected the BoE to hike its Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% this month, in line with interest rate futures pricing. Survey medians showed the Bank Rate was expected to peak at 5.50%, matching rate futures pricing, and stay there until mid-2024. While 28 economists expected the Bank Rate to peak at 5.75%, two said 6.00%. Nine of 16 gilt-edged Market Makers (GEMMs) that participated in the poll predicted a 5.50% peak rate and seven said 5.75%. A separate Reuters poll showed average house prices in Britain were predicted to fall 4% this year and flatline in 2024 before rising in 2025.

Persons: BoE, Maja Smiejkowska, Ellie Henderson, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, Catherine Mann, Shaloo Shrivastava, Anitta Sunil, Purujit Arun, Maneesh Kumar, Pranoy, Ross Finley, Hari Kishan, Mark Potter Organizations: Bank of England, REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, HSBC, MPC, Royal Institution, Chartered Surveyors, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, Investec

☆ British home prices to fall 4% in 2023 as borrowing costs bite: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The most pessimistic forecast was for a 10% fall, despite consumer prices expected to rise 7.5% this year, according to a separate Reuters poll. They were expected to flatline in 2024 and rise a little over 3% the year after, little changed from the previous poll. "The London housing market ebbs and flows, yet is there really such a thing as a 'London property market' nowadays?" RENTAL STRESSThose unable or unwilling to make it onto the property ladder will feel the pinch from surging rental costs. Private rental prices paid by tenants in Britain rose 5.3% in the 12 months to July, according to the Office for National Statistics.

Persons: Stefan Wermuth, BoE, Michael McGill, Zoopla, Russell Quirk, Aneisha Beveridge, Jonathan Cable, Mumal Rathore, Rahul Trivedi, Purujit, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of England, Office, National Statistics, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, Kensington, Mayfair, Barking, Dagenham

Despite that, the latest Reuters poll narrowly showed Bank Rate peaking at 5.50%, down from 5.75% predicted in July. All but one of 62 economists in the Aug. 16-23 poll expected Bank Rate to go up 25 basis points to 5.50% next month. The medians showed Bank Rate remaining on hold after September's hike until Q3 next year, though a significant minority - 47% or 29 of 62 economists - estimated a higher peak. That is a flip from a July poll when a slim majority, 51% or 31 of 61 participants, predicted Bank Rate at 5.75% or more by year-end. The wider poll showed inflation averaging 6.8% and 4.7% this quarter and next.

Persons: Luke MacGregor, BoE, James Smith, Simon Wells, Shaloo Shrivastava, Jonathan Cable, Mumal Rathore, Rahul Trivedi, Purujit Arun, Ross Finley, John Stonestreet Organizations: of, REUTERS, Bank of England, Reuters, ING, Reserve, European Central Bank, HSBC, Thomson Locations: of England, London, BRITAIN, BENGALURU, LONDON, Western Europe

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